Writings W040901:
Hugging
the Monorail
Counting Noses
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Writings W040901:
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- see also:
- 2004-09-29 an edited version of this analysis on the Orcmid's Lair blog
In his September 19, 2004 rant on the Monowail, Stefan Sharkansky makes the following assertions:
"I blame the process which enabled the Seattle Monorail Project to go forward in November 2002 when only 22% of the registered voters bothered to affirmatively vote for the Project. That should have been a clue that the other 78% of the city didn't really want the Monorail, even if the other side managed to get a few hundred more people to the polls on that particular day."
Having voted in that election, I was a tad irritated to have my vote diminished in this manner. However, Stefan's lament did lead me to wonder about the basis for those observations. I checked the election returns myself. Here's what I have for you:
November 2002 Voting
More Perspective
High-Turnout 2000
Resources
In November 2002, the voters of Seattle responded in the following manner to the Monorail Authority Initiative that was on their ballot:
Table 1: Election Results for the November 2002 Seattle Monorail Authority initiative 431,203 100.00% Seattle residents were registered to vote on election day. This is the basis for all percentages here. 196,360 45.54% came to the polls and voted. 94,993 22.03% voted YES (for 50.23% of the votes cast) for the Monorail Authority initiative 94,116 21.83% voted NO (for 49.77% of the votes cast) against the initiative. 189,109 43.85% of registered voters cast a vote on this initiative. 7,251 1.68% of registered voters came to the polls and did not cast any vote on this initiative. 877 0.20% more votes were cast for the initiative than against it. This might be a very useful demonstration of the simple fact that every vote counts. More than that, every vote matters.
What does this show us?
- The initiative passed fair-and-square.
- The margin between the YES and NO votes was smaller than the number of people who came to the polls and did not vote on this measure for whatever reason
- We know nothing about what was or was not in the minds of those registered voters (and eligible but unregistered voters) that did not arrange to cast a ballot in that election.
The ballot initiative was no surprise. It was not even unexpected (being a follow-on to a measure that was approved in November 2000).
After claiming that if you didn't come vote for the Monorail Authority, you must have been against it, Sharkansky concludes with a peculiar observation:
"Maybe in the future we can tighten the rules so a tiny band of fanatics can't so easily abuse the democratic process to foist another stupid and expensive project on an entire city that is overwhelmingly indifferent to it."
So now I'm a fanatic and everyone else is simply indifferent (or does he mean apathetic?). I guess that makes me a successful pick-pocket. Wow. Somehow, I don't think this is the abuse of the democratic process that is being foisted on us.
To calibrate your own perspective on that election day, what it determined, and what the level of indifference of Seattle voters is, the following additional results from the same election day might be of some interest:
- Representative Jennifer Dunn was elected to the U.S. Congress with a 46.85% voter turnout in District 8 and with slightly over 3600 votes more than the 95,000 who approved the monorail initiative.
- Four amendments to the Seattle City Charter were passed with fewer total votes cast for each than for the Monorail Authority initiative. Amendment 3 passed with fewer YES votes than the Monorail Authority initiative.
- Fire Protection District 50 (where 133 voters comprised 45.08% of those registered) passed a property-tax levy renewal by 65 to 63. That's right, 5 people who came to the polls did not cast a vote on this measure.
I don't think Seattle voters are notably indifferent. For example, in the year 2000 general election (remember that one?), there was also a monorail initiative, the one that authorized the work that led to the Monorail Authority initiative in 2002.
Table 2: Election Results for the November 2000 Monorail System initiative 377,599 100.00% Seattle residents were registered to vote on election day. This is the basis for all percentages here. 285,458 75.60% came to the polls and voted. 148,629 39.36% voted YES (for 56.36% of the votes cast) for the Monorail System initiative. 115,101 30.48% voted NO (for 43.64% of the votes cast) against the initiative. 263,730 69.84% of registered voters cast a vote on this initiative. 21,728 5.75% of registered voters came to the polls and did not cast any vote on this initiative. 33,528 9.93% more votes were cast for the initiative than against it. And still, we have only meaningless speculations about what those who abstained from voting on this initiative (whether at the polls or not) had in mind. The only sense I have about abstentions is that it means that I am indifferent to the outcome. That is, I am completely willing to accept the outcome that people who care more arrive at. That is how the system works, whether we were thinking something else or not.
So, are you passionate enough about the Monorail Authority, how it is doing, and what it is doing, that you will vote? What are the facts (or allegations) that concern you the most?
Here's my speculation:
- Over 500,000 eligible voters will be registered to vote in the November 2004 general election in Seattle.
- Over 80% of those registered voters will cast a ballot.
- The "Monorail Recall" initiative will fail, with over 75% of registered voters taking a position on that initiative.
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created 2004-09-29-13:35 -0700 (pdt) by orcmid |