Welcome to Orcmid's Lair, the playground for family connections, pastimes, and scholarly vocation -- the collected professional and recreational work of Dennis E. Hamilton

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Hugging the Monorail: Counting Noses

In the previous note, I expressed enthusiasm for the Seattle Monorail Project.  I also said that some facts might help clear the air.  Here's what I have in mind with regard to the claims about the November 2002 election that gave the public go-ahead to the Monorail Authority.

In his September 19, 2004 rant on the Monowail, Stefan Sharkansky asserts the following:

"I blame the process which enabled the Seattle Monorail Project to go forward in November 2002 when only 22% of the registered voters bothered to affirmatively vote for the Project.  That should have been a clue that the other 78% of the city didn't really want the Monorail, even if the other side managed to get a few hundred more people to the polls on that particular day."

Having voted in that election, I was a tad irritated to have my vote diminished in this manner.  However, Stefan's lament did lead me to wonder about the basis for those observations.  I checked the election returns myself.

November 2002 Voting

In November 2002, the voters of Seattle responded in the following manner to the Monorail Authority Initiative that was on their ballot:

Table 1: Election Results for the November 2002 Seattle Monorail Authority initiative

431,203	100.00%	Seattle residents were registered to vote on election day.  This is the basis for all percentages here.
196,360	45.54%	came to the polls and voted.
94,993	22.03%	voted YES (for 50.23% of the votes cast) for the Monorail Authority initiative
94,116	21.83%	voted NO (for 49.77% of the votes cast) against the initiative.
189,109	43.85%	of registered voters cast a vote on this initiative.
7,251	1.68%	of registered voters came to the polls and did not cast any vote on this initiative.
877	0.20%	more votes were cast for the initiative than against it.

This might be a very useful demonstration of the simple fact that every vote counts.  More than that, every vote matters.

What does this show us?

• The initiative passed fair-and-square.
• The margin between the YES and NO votes was smaller than the number of people who came to the polls and did not vote on this measure for whatever reason
• We know nothing about what was or was not in the minds of those registered voters (and eligible but unregistered voters) that did not arrange to cast a ballot in that election.

The ballot initiative was no surprise.  It was not even unexpected (being a follow-on to a measure that was approved in November 2000).

More Perspective

After insinuating that if you didn't come vote for the Monorail Authority, you must have been against it, Sharkansky concludes with a peculiar observation:

"Maybe in the future we can tighten the rules so a tiny band of fanatics can't so easily abuse the democratic process to foist another stupid and expensive project on an entire city that is overwhelmingly indifferent to it."

Somehow, if there is an abuse of democratic process that is being foisted on us somewhere, I don't think that's it.

To calibrate your own perspective on that election day, what it determined, and what the level of indifference of Seattle voters is, the following additional results from the same election day might be of some interest:

• Representative Jennifer Dunn was elected to the U.S. Congress with a 46.85% voter turnout in District 8 and with slightly over 3600 votes more than the 95,000 who approved the monorail initiative.
• Four amendments to the Seattle City Charter were passed with fewer total votes cast for each than for the Monorail Authority initiative.  Amendment 3 passed with fewer YES votes than the Monorail Authority initiative.
• Fire Protection District 50 (where 133 voters comprised 45.08% of those registered) passed a property-tax levy renewal by 65 to 63.

High-Turnout 2000

I don't think Seattle voters are notably indifferent.  For example, in the year 2000 general election (remember that one?), there was also a monorail initiative, the one that authorized the work that led to the Monorail Authority initiative in 2002.

Table 2: Election Results for the November 2000 Monorail System initiative

377,599	100.00%	Seattle residents were registered to vote on election day.  This is the basis for all percentages here.
285,458	75.60%	came to the polls and voted.
148,629	39.36%	voted YES (for 56.36% of the votes cast) for the Monorail System initiative.
115,101	30.48%	voted NO (for 43.64% of the votes cast) against the initiative.
263,730	69.84%	of registered voters cast a vote on this initiative.
21,728	5.75%	of registered voters came to the polls and did not cast any vote on this initiative.
33,528	9.93%	more votes were cast for the initiative than against it.

And still, we have only meaningless speculations about what those who abstained from voting on this initiative (whether at the polls or not) had in mind.  The only sense I have about abstentions is that it means that I am indifferent to the outcome.  That is, I am completely willing to accept the outcome that people who care more arrive at.  That is how the system works, whether we were thinking something else or not.

So, are you passionate enough about the Monorail Authority, how it is doing, and what it is doing, that you will vote?  What are the facts (or allegations) that concern you the most?

Here's my speculation:  I notice that Sharkanksy speculates today that the monorail will lose.  Rather than dwell on the soap-opera that bubbles through the debate, I expect people to recognize the same self-interest that has persevered on this journey thus far.  I'll be specific:

• Over 500,000 eligible voters will be registered to vote in the November 2004 general election in Seattle.
• Over 80% of those registered voters will cast a ballot.
• The "Monorail Recall" initiative will fail, with over 72% of registered voters casting a vote on that initiative.

posted by orcmid at 9/29/2004 11:48:57 PM