P040400a: Risks of Speculation

This is a running diary and job jar of items in support of the Risks of Speculating Risks article,
whatever its title is today.

Status	Date	Description


	2004-09-29	Recover the new material that Sommerville has collected and linked to also
done	2004-09-29	Stitch the HTML pages here into the Writings Catalog.
done	2004-09-29	Adjust this format to the latest style and formats
	2004-05-17	As there is material here, do a "trackback" sort of thing from the Praxis101 Wiki.
	2004-05-17	Check the notes in today's call with anderbill.  I think we touched on something that may be pertinent here.
	2004-05-17	There is a connection today in eWeek about statistics on code quality and such. It would be useful to see how that works out.
	2004-05-17	Also look back through my architetto/ingegnere Outlook notes for previous discussions and connections
	2004-05-17	It would be nice to have some visuals. Might want to see what is available on the CNN and also the ESA sites.
	2004-05-17	I need to conduct a wider literature search, beside Risks Digest. Use the ACM and IEEE-CS Digital Libraries and also the ACM TechNet material. There may be other sites as well.
	2004-05-17	There is something about faith in software, and faith in the perfectability of software that might be at issue here. MacKenzie and the dependable software people may have something to offer on this. There is also something about the premises of autonomic computing and ductile response to security penetrations as well. This should be checked here.
	2004-05-17	This analysis will raise open questions. I need to have a way to manage that without having to dive in, while also determining what next is required. Some of it is psycho-social-dynamic, some of it is something about hammers and nails, and some of it is how does one instill the appropriate practices that provide for validity vigilance or something like it.
	2004-05-17	In discussing the speculating risks part, consider that it is done from the perspective of the observer - it is easier for programmers to see this as related to a software bug, not as a design, software engineering, and systems engineering defect (the word "failure" is not appropriate here). This is different than the perspective (possibly shared by the same people) in which this is desired to be "nothing more" than a programming error.
	2004-05-17	Do a general google search on Ariane 501 and the different coverages and reportings of it
	2004-05-17	Move the notes on review of the risks digest to a collected note, with links for attributions
	2004-05-17	Review my blog and create a blog page that collects all of my notes on Ariane 501
	2004-05-17	Make a little index page that identifies the materials and subpages of this writing project that are here.
	2004-04-06	Create a catalog of the notes and archive copies that I have brought under this article, then figure out how to sequester them properly.
	2004-04-06	Have a good-enough draft reviewed by AnderBill, Gail Miles, the Dependable Computing contact, Arnold, Sommerville, and the usual suspects (PJD, Glass, PGN, McConnell and maybe Parnas too).
	2004-04-06	Cite Lister & DeMarco as well as the work on creation of invalid mental models that was done in the UK.
	2004-04-06	Retire Draft 0.00 and create 0.10 with elimination of nit-picking of the assignment and Arnold's non sequiter so that it does not create a distraction from the main points.
	2004-04-06	Feature the press release that announced the findings better. It is useful to focus on the root cause by what the Inquiry Board focused on as the necessary remedies.
done	2004-04-06	Add link in citation of [Lions1996] from note [2].
done	2004-04-06	Correct the title in the header of the W040400.htm page
done	2004-04-06	Change the title to "Risks of Risk Speculation."
done	2004-04-06	Make a job jar and transfer over all of the items I have thought of since stopping late last night.
done	2004-04-05	AnderBill calls wanting to find what I have on Ariane 5 Flight 501 so he can dash off a letter about the current Dr. Dobb's issue. I resolve to start building an article and claim this unfulfilled promise off of my integrity checklist.