Orcmid's Lair
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Welcome to Orcmid's Lair, the playground for family connections, pastimes, and scholarly vocation -- the collected professional and recreational work of Dennis E. Hamilton

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Recent Items
 
The Long Tail Meme
 
Goodbye, "Pre-Approved Offer"
 
Open Source: Taking Food from the Mouths of Capitalist Babies?
 
Scoble Links: Overwhelm of the Solitary Connector
 
Don Knuth on Science as Art and Scholarship as Community Effort
 
Agreeing While Disagreeing
 
Addressing Customer Demands?
 
Crushing Supply-Push Under Demand-Pull
 
The fearful state of on-line students
 
The Final Page

2005-04-02

The Long Tail Meme

ACM News Service: A Miss Hit.  This is a nice summary of Chris Anderson's "The Long Tail" and the impact the notion has had in viewing digital commerce and the ways that many small audiences are reachable -- as well as having their own voice in the mesh of Internet overlays.

The 2005-03-24 Jack Schofield Guardian Unlimited article is a pleasant read and overview to what the discussion, and some degree of excitement for us cottage industrialists, is all about.  The article lead captures that in a valuable way: "Companies should wake up to the new economics of the internet, and think abundance, not shortage, says Jack Schofield."

I think this is an appropriate rejoinder to Stephen Downes notion that the power-curve aspect of the long tail is disempowering, and the cinema and film example is a great illustration of how the long tail can create value away from the popular, the same way amazon.com and eBay do.  Language is rich because of the long tail, and it is natural that a few words are heavily used because language is also highly-adapted to economical expression as well.

The potential impact on the Creative Commons effort around abandoned works is something that is not understood, but it will depend on what the revenue model becomes for works that are no longer salable, or even available, through physical channels.  I don't think this is so big an issue, because a work that is still marketed via some DRM mechanism is not abandoned in the sense meant for out-of-print books and unsupported computer games.  The article points out that Larry Lessig and Chris Anderson have not brought that discussion forward, and it will be important to see how that could be made to work for mass-market unacceptable or abandoned works.  The same question applies to software that moves into the tail from the standpoint of support withdrawal and obsolescent platforms, something the furor over the impending end-of-life for Visual Basic 6.0 may illuminate.

If the long tail erodes the peak where mass-media and mass-marketing thrive, this may indeed be disturbing for mainstream producers.  Still, antique cars and their aftermarket quests don't seem to upset the automobile industry.

I am curious how the long tail plays out in the trust economy around digital products.  This Jack Schofield piece provides useful perspective on the tension that surrounds "The Long Tail."

 
Comments:
 
Orcmid, I'm slowing beginning to understand what the "long tail" ideas are about, and this piece is helpful in that regard. So, thanks for that. But you lost me when you said that Amazon and eBay help promote what's not popular. My experience of Amazon is that there the books that are popular to many are promoted, just the way popular books are promoted in the NY Times best seller list.

It seems to me that an orientation that focuses on abundance rather than scarcity is indeed revolutionary in a supply and demand driven economics. I agree there is abundance and Hooray! But how are we going to be able to see it and value it when scarcity and competition are the prominent ideas?
 
 
Hi Bill.   I threw you a curve with "promote."  Amazon.com has tens-of-thousands of books, including ones that ordinary bricks-and-mortars bookstores can't or don't carry.  And for what they don't have "in stock" there may be a listing and links to booksellers who do have the book.  I have been buying more-and-more books from stores that have used or remaindered ones that are less expensive than those at amazon.com.  I locate and order them via amazon.com, and the ease of ordering and using amazon for payment makes these sources attractive to order from.  I just bought Simpson Garfinkle's 1995 book on PGP that way.  It's how I obtained Schneier's Secrets & Lies that I'm now reading.

I'd say that amazon has an abundance model and they do not restrict what they offer to some selection of the most popular. They might feature popular books in their recommendations, but I think the "people who bought this book also bought ... " and other statistics might just as easily reflect a niche in the long tail.
 
 
By now I should know that it is Simson Garfinkel, not what I said.  And I have him on a book cover within arms reach so it is really sloppy of me to not double-check [;<).
 
 
Oh funny, I didn't use "promoted," you did.   Well, it sounded like something I might have said.   I agree that the New York Times book list (and the same in my supermarket's book rack) is conceding little about the long tail.   I'd say that the amazon.com approach is quite different.   You can know the popularity of an item, but its availability isn't limited to the big spike and my experience is that they are interested in recommending what I have shown an interest in.   It's more like the supermarket, but with a personal shopper interested in my satisfying my specialized interests [;<).
 
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2005-03-30

Goodbye, "Pre-Approved Offer"

Opt-Out Prescreen Website.  I had a great experience with junk postal mail the other day.  I received yet another pre-approved offering in the daily mail and before I put the identifying information through the household shredder on the way to the recycle tub, I noticed an unusual insert along with the letter.

Something peculiar this way comes.  Most of the offers that come my way have all of the fine print and terms and conditions on the back of the stub that would be mailed in, though I don't bother reading them any more.  But this mailing had a distinctive, normal-sized-text printed insert.  The insert provided details of the offer, explaining that it was based on pre-screening of my credit records.  I could end up being ineligible for the home equity loan that was proposed to me (and I am indeed ineligible as well as not in need of the service). It was impressive that they made the situation so clear.

You have the right to prohibit information in your consumer file ... from being used in connection with ..."If you'd rather not receive these offers.  Even more startling was the back side of the insert, which explained carefully that there is an opt-out service for people who do not wish to receive such mailings of pre-screened offers.  Wow!

"You have the right to prohibit information in your consumer file with any consumer reporting agency from being used in connection with any financial or insurance transaction that you have not initiated.  To exercise this right, call ... ."

I set the material aside, resolved to call the +1-888-567-8688 number at my earliest opportunity.  When I did that, I had an interesting experience with a well-behaved voice-recognition system.  At one point, the voice response asked me a question and then was silent.  I paused, considered for a moment, and then said "Yes."  The system caught it at once and continued through the questions and requests for information.  I don't know what would have happened if I'd out-waited the system, but I'll wager that it would advise me to press some keys.

I was also given the web-site URL a few times, though the voice-recognition system worked well enough for me.  I've since visited the web site and I like how straightforward the entrance page is.  My entire experience was very positive.  I bet yours will be too.

Vicki and I have been watching the mail and looking for anything with other pre-approved offers that explains our right to opt-out.  So far, nary one other opt-out among the daily pre-approved arrivals.


This experience is a remarkable contrast with having someone I didn't know at my current branch bank cold-call me and tell me over the phone that they'd noticed I was carrying a high balance on my checking account, suggesting that I move some into an interest-bearing savings account.  When I backtracked the call and confirmed that it was from an unlisted extension at my branch bank, I found them to be clueless why I was disturbed by that call.  It makes me wonder why I'm not doing business at the place where the folks seem more-thoughtful about my concerns and I don't even bank there.  If I get to a point where I need to make some changes anyhow, I have a good candidate for a different bank.

A few years ago I subscribed to one of the reporting services that would provide alerts about actions against my credit report.  It seemed like a good idea except for two things.  First, the reports came long after the activity, so any damaging actions would have long since been completed.  Secondly, all of the activity was basically fishing by financial institutions probing for people who met their pre-approval conditions.  So I abandoned that service.

I did learn that my credit history never dies.  There were organizations that had me listed as an account holder in good standing years after I no longer had any relationship with them.  I don't like the idea that those inactive accounts might somehow be accessed by someone, but I mostly just forget about it.

In the two cases where there was something odd in my credit situation, knowing it was pretty useless.  When I sold my Sunnyvale, California, condominium, I learned there was a lien against the property placed there by the District Attorney of San Jose.  That was startling for me, but not for the title company.  I was told that judgments against people who've skipped are placed on the nearest approximately-credible alternative.  It was simple to file an affidavit asserting that I wasn't the person the judgment was against, and that was the end of it.  This did not increase my confidence in our civil authorities, however.

When I applied to rent a house in the Puget Sound area a few years later, the rental agent said there was a bad-debt claim on my credit report from TCI Cablevision (referring to a period of time when I was a good customer and continued to be one for a few years beyond that).  The rental agent was not disturbed about it at all.  I did call ATT Cablevision as TCI had become by then.  The person I reached insisted that I had to know which location of TCI placed the claim and they could do nothing otherwise.  When I said there was no such information on the report (but the number that I called was on the report), she argued with me about it and was completely unhelpful.  Since this didn't seem to impact my creditworthiness whatsoever, I let it go and subsequently delighted in telling all ATT Cablevision and Com-Cast folks who cold-called me (before the national do-not-call list was created) that I don't own a television (true) and that I am quite happy with the DSL service I receive from the telephone switching center 2 blocks from my home (also true).


[update: 2005-03-30T18:05Z I noticed that the https URLs to the opt-out site don't quite work, perhaps depending on firewall and other settings, so I revised the links in this entry to use the http URL that redirects successfully to the https one (and you can take delight in blocking the cookie from Verisign if you want).  Meanwhile, I learn that there is a great deal more information on how to eliminate junk, with JunkBusters providing a comprehensive description [;<).

 
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